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Freshpet (FRPT) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in the Offing?

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Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT - Free Report) is likely to register an increase in the top and bottom lines when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 earnings on Feb 26, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $203.7 million, indicating a rise of about 22.8% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.

The consensus estimate for the fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 9 cents per share against the year-ago quarterly loss of 6 cents a share. The consensus mark has been stable over the past 30 days.

This pet food company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 7%, on average.

Freshpet, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Freshpet, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Freshpet, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Freshpet, Inc. Quote

Factors to Note

Freshpet's enhanced brand visibility, increased household penetration, growing consumer interest in high-quality pet foods and product innovation are likely to have favorably impacted the top line in the fourth quarter. The company’s efforts to expand into new distribution channels, such as club stores, also bode well. The increased availability of Freshpet products in these channels is likely to have led to a broader reach and higher sales volumes. Moreover, Freshpet's commitment to adapting to changing consumer preferences and leveraging digital platforms are expected to have contributed to the overall performance.

On its third-quarter earnings call, the company projected net sales growth to be in the low-20s percentage range for the fourth quarter. The company had earlier forecast consumption growth to remain robust in the high-20s percentage range, which indicates a continuous strong consumer demand for Freshpet products. This sustained demand underscores the brand’s resonance with consumers and the effectiveness of its product offerings and marketing strategies.

Freshpet’s ongoing initiatives to improve operational efficiency, including logistics optimization and cost reduction measures, are likely to have positively impacted margins in the fourth quarter. Efficiencies gained in production, distribution and supply-chain management are expected to have contributed to higher profitability.

Despite projecting the adjusted gross margin for the fourth quarter to be slightly below the preceding quarter, the company expected it to significantly exceed the 33% margin reported in the fourth quarter of 2022. This guidance factors in the anticipated impacts of start-up costs for a second backline in Ennis and the hiring of additional manufacturing staff to meet demand.

These proactive marketing, operational planning and financial management measures are likely to have influenced fourth-quarter results.

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Freshpet this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Freshpet has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies, which according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this season:

The Clorox Company (CLX - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.02% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share is pegged at $1.40, down 7.3% year over year. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Clorox Company’s top line is expected to have increased year over year. The consensus estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.93 billion, which indicates an increase of 0.5% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. CLX has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 127.8%, on average.

Church & Dwight Co. (CHD - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.19% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is slated to witness top-line growth when it reports first-quarter 2024 results. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CHD’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $1.49 billion, which suggests growth of 4.1% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.

Although the consensus estimate for Church & Dwight’s quarterly earnings has moved down by 6 cents over the past 30 days to 87 cents per share, the figure suggests growth of 2.4% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number. CHD delivered an earnings surprise of 9.7%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register top and bottom-line growth when it reports fourth-quarter 2023 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius’ quarterly earnings per share of 16 cents suggests a significant increase from the year-ago quarter’s levels.

CELH has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 110.9%, on average. The consensus estimate for Celsius’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $324 million, indicating a rise of 82% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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